Economic Performance & Outlook
Ireland entered 2025 in a strong position, with Modified Gross National Income (GNI*) growing by 4% in 2024.
Growth supported by robust consumption and net exports, largely from foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs).
Inflation has fallen to around 1.3% in 2024, with core inflation stable near 2%.
The labour market is tight, but easing slightly; unemployment remains low (4.3%).
Risks & Vulnerabilities
High exposure to external trade and tax policy shocks due to reliance on a few large MNEs.
Geoeconomic fragmentation and global uncertainty pose significant downside risks.
Domestic bottlenecks include housing shortages and infrastructure gaps.
Fiscal Policy Recommendations
A broadly neutral fiscal stance with increased capital investment is recommended.
Suggested use of windfall corporate income tax (CIT) receipts (e.g., €14bn from CJEU Apple case) for non-recurring capital investment.
Tax base should be broadened to reduce reliance on volatile CIT revenue (e.g., enhance VAT, property, and PIT systems).
Consideration of a general government debt anchor (e.g., 40% of GNI*) and expenditure ceilings.
Financial & Macroprudential Policy
The financial sector is resilient, but vigilance is needed amid global uncertainty and rising risks in the non-bank sector.
Residential property prices continue to rise due to supply shortages; commercial real estate is weakening.
Banks remain sound with strong capital and liquidity buffers; mortgage market supported by fixed rates and household net wealth growth.
Structural Reforms & Competitiveness
Encourage deeper linkages between MNEs and domestic firms to boost innovation.
Address housing supply constraints by increasing productivity and regulatory efficiency in the construction sector.
Ireland is well-positioned to benefit from digitalisation and AI, but must manage associated risks.
Continued engagement in the EU is key to strengthening competitiveness and trade resilience.