Showing posts with label Budget. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Budget. Show all posts

Ireland’s Corporate Tax Dependence: A Summary

1. Ireland’s Corporate-Tax Structure

  • Ireland collected €39.1 billion in corporation tax in 2024.
  • Corporate tax has become Ireland’s single most volatile and most concentrated revenue source.
  • Foreign-owned multinationals paid 88% of all corporation tax in 2024.
  • According to the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (IFAC), around 75% of all corporate-tax receipts come from U.S.-owned multinationals.

This means Ireland is unusually exposed to the behaviour of a small number of very large firms.

2. The “Big Three”: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google)

Official data does not name the biggest taxpayers (due to confidentiality), but multiple fiscal and journalistic analyses converge on the same top three contributors:

1. Apple

2. Microsoft

3. Alphabet (Google)

These are widely believed to be the three largest corporate taxpayers in Ireland, all U.S.-based, and dominant within the tech sector.

3. How Much Do These Three Contribute?

  • Ireland’s total CT receipts (2024): €39.1 bn
  • Estimated contribution from Apple + Microsoft + Alphabet: €12–14 bn per year
  • This aligns with IFAC’s finding that three firms account for roughly one-third of all CT.
  • This is not a minor concentration — it is an economic dependency.

4. What If All Three Pulled Out of Ireland?

Corporate Tax Impact:

  • Loss of €12–14 bn immediately.
  • That is 14–17% of the State’s entire annual tax revenue.
  • This would create an instant and severe budget deficit.

Wider Revenue Impact:

Removing these firms affects:

  • Payroll taxes
  • VAT
  • Income taxes from employees
  • Spending in local supply chains
  • Total annual loss: realistically €15–18 bn.

5. Sectoral Consequences

The missing revenue directly funds Ireland’s social and public services:

  • Education
  • Reduced school budgets
  • Delays or cancellations in new school building
  • Larger class sizes
  • Hiring freezes or slower teacher replacement
  • Healthcare
  • Longer hospital waiting lists
  • Reduced funding for capacity expansion
  • Fewer frontline staff
  • Difficulty maintaining capital projects like new wards or equipment upgrades
  • GardaĆ­ (policing and justice)
  • Fewer new recruits
  • Increased pressure on overtime budgets
  • Slower rollout of equipment, vehicles, and technology upgrades
  • Cuts to community policing resources

A sudden €15–18 bn revenue loss would force the Government into austerity-style adjustments:

  • Large spending cuts,
  • Tax increases, or
  • Heavy borrowing.
  • Any combination of those would be felt immediately by households and public services.

6. Why Ireland Is Vulnerable

  • The economic model relies on attracting large U.S. multinationals.
  • These firms are highly profitable and mobile.
  • Their Irish operations dramatically inflate the tax base.
  • But this creates a dependency: a small number of firms hold enormous fiscal weight.
  • This is a classic example of revenue concentration risk — a topic that belongs squarely in modern macroeconomics and public-finance teaching.

7. Key Points

  • Ireland’s corporate-tax success is real, but fragile.
  • Three U.S. tech giants provide roughly one-third of all CT receipts.
  • If they withdrew, Ireland would face:
  • A multi-billion-euro fiscal shock,
  • Cuts to schools, hospitals, policing, and infrastructure,
  • Rising debt,
  • A loss of investor confidence,
  • A long-term threat to the sustainability of the tax base.

It’s a textbook illustration of concentration risk, multinational dependency, and the trade-offs within small open economies.

A podcast on this topic is available here.

Summary of Budget 2026

Budget 2026, titled “Strengthening our Foundations for the Future,” outlines the Irish Government’s spending, taxation, and investment plans for the coming year. It aims to balance economic stability, social inclusion, and infrastructure expansion while maintaining fiscal discipline.

Macroeconomic Context
  • Economic Growth: Modified Gross National Income (GNI*) is forecast to continue robust growth through 2026–2028, reflecting a stable underlying economy.
  • Inflation: The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) shows inflation moderating towards 2% by 2026.
  • Labour Market:
  1. Employment exceeds 2.8 million, up nearly 64,000 year-on-year.
  2. Unemployment is projected to remain low, near 4%.
  3. Real wages (adjusted for inflation) are expected to rise, signalling improving living standards.

Budgetary Position
  • Additional Current Expenditure: €6.1 billion
  • Additional Capital Expenditure: €2.0 billion
  • Permanent Tax Measures: €1.3 billion
  • Total Voted Expenditure for 2026: €117.8 billion
  • Total Non-Voted Expenditure: €15.9 billion

Revenue Sources
  • Government funding primarily comes from taxation:
  • Income Tax: €38.8 billion
  • Corporation Tax: €34.0 billion
  • VAT: €23.3 billion
  • Other smaller contributions come from excise duties, stamp duties, and capital taxes.

Spending Breakdown
  • Goods, Services & Welfare Payments: €62.4 billion
  • Public Sector Salaries & Pensions: €36.3 billion
  • Capital Expenditure: €19.1 billion
The largest departmental allocations go to:
  • Social Protection: €28.9 billion
  • Health: €27.4 billion
  • Education: €13.1 billion
  • Housing, Local Government & Heritage: €11.3 billion

Public Services and Social Supports
The Budget continues major public service improvements since 2019:
  • Public Sector Staffing: +66,500 workers since 2019 (including 19,000 extra teachers/SNAs and 28,500 health staff).
  • Healthcare: Expansion of free GP care (now up to age 8), more hospital and community beds, and 1.7 million extra home support hours.
  • Social Protection:
  1. €10 per week increase in core payments.
  2. Carer’s Allowance income disregard increased to €1,000 (single) / €2,000 (couple).
  3. Higher Child Support Payments (€8 for under-12s, €16 for over-12s).
  4. Working Family Payment threshold up €60 per week.
  5. Education: 1,717 new SNAs, new DEIS and DEIS Plus schemes, and €500 reduction in student contribution fees.
  6. Childcare: 285,000 children to benefit from the National Childcare Scheme.

National Development Plan (NDP)
  • Updated NDP (July 2025) commits €275.4 billion to infrastructure investment to 2035.
  • €102.4 billion will be spent in the next five years.
  • Focus areas: Water (€12.2bn), Energy (€3.5bn equity to ESB/EirGrid), and Transport (€24.3bn), including low-carbon projects like Metrolink.
  • The Government acknowledges slow project delivery and will implement reforms to planning, legal, and construction processes.

Climate Action and Carbon Tax
  • Carbon Tax: Increases by €7.50 per tonne to €71, rising annually to €100 by 2030.
  • Petrol/Diesel: +€1.28–€1.48 per 60L fill
  • Gas: +€16.98 per 11,000 kWh
  • Kerosene: +€19.41 per 900L
Carbon Tax revenues of €1.1 billion will fund:
  • €566m for energy efficiency programmes
  • €350m for social protection supports
  • €173m for sustainable farming
  • €20m for transport electrification and greenways
  • €5m for peatland restoration

Key Expenditure Initiatives
  • Housing: €2.9 billion for new social homes and second-hand acquisitions.
  • Transport: €940 million for public transport services.
  • Health and Care: 9,000 residential care placements and new disability services.
Enterprise and Skills:
  • More funding for apprenticeships, Enterprise Ireland, and IDA.
  • Establishment of a National AI Office (€1.4 million).
  • Additional €30 million for official development aid.

Key Tax Measures
VAT:
  • 9% VAT rate retained on gas and electricity until 2030.
  • 9% VAT rate for food, catering, and hairdressing from July 2026.
  • 9% VAT rate for the sale of apartments.
Business Incentives:
  • R&D Tax Credit increased to 35%.
  • Enhanced Corporation Tax deduction for apartment construction.
  • Living City Initiative extended and expanded.
Personal Taxation:
  • USC middle threshold increased by €1,318.
  • Rent Tax Credit extended to 2028.
  • Entrepreneur Relief limit raised to €1.5 million.
  • Excise Duty on cigarettes up by €0.50 per pack.

Fiscal Transparency and Engagement
The Budget promotes openness through:
  • Monthly Fiscal Monitor publications
  • The Where Your Money Goes platform
  • Performance Budgeting frameworks linking spending to outcomes
  • Public input through the National Economic Dialogue

Conclusion
Budget 2026 combines moderate tax reform with strong investment in housing, childcare, and infrastructure, underpinned by environmental commitments and fiscal sustainability. It aims to strengthen Ireland’s economic base, enhance living standards, and prepare the country for long-term challenges — notably climate change, demographic shifts, and digital transformation.



Ireland's Spending on Education: An International Comparison

Ireland has been steadily declining in government spending on education as a percentage of GDP in recent years. In 2008, Ireland spent 4.9% of its GDP on education, but by 2020, that number had fallen to 3.1%. This decline is in stark contrast to the OECD average, which has remained relatively stable at around 4.9% over the same period.

Data from: Our World in Data

There are a number of factors that have contributed to Ireland's declining education spending:

  • The financial crisis of 2008 had a significant impact on the Irish economy, and government spending on all fronts was reduced as a result.
  • In addition, Ireland has seen a significant increase in the number of students attending third level education in recent years, which has put a strain on resources.

The decline in government spending on education has had a number of negative consequences:

  • First, it has led to larger class sizes and less access to resources for students. 
  • Second, it has made it more difficult for schools to attract and retain high-quality teachers.
  • Third, it has contributed to a decline in the quality of education in Ireland.

Ireland's declining education spending is a matter of concern for many people. There is a growing consensus that Ireland needs to invest more in education in order to remain competitive in the global economy. The government has made some commitments to increasing education spending in recent years, but it remains to be seen whether these commitments will be enough to reverse the trend.

In terms of how Ireland compares with other wealthy countries in this regard, Ireland is one of the lowest spenders on education as a percentage of GDP. Only Chile, Mexico, and Turkey spend less on education as a percentage of GDP than Ireland. The United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and most other European countries spend significantly more on education as a percentage of GDP than Ireland.

If Ireland wants to remain competitive in the global economy, it needs to invest more in education. The government needs to make a long-term commitment to increasing education spending and to ensuring that all students have access to a high-quality education.

Government Spending in 2023

The following information is a breakdown of public spending in Ireland in 2023. Further details are available here.

Government spending in 2023.

The image below illustrates recent changes in Irish public expenditure since 2021.

Changes in spending since 2021.

Full details on the the 2023 Budget can be accessed here.