The Future Forty: A Fiscal and Economic Outlook to 2065, prepared by the Department of Finance and Future Forty: Mapping Ireland’s Economic Trajectory to 2065 published in November 2025, presents a crucial long-term perspective on the Irish economy, grounded in anticipatory governance. The analysis assesses challenges and opportunities across seven critical "Deep Dives": Climate Change and the Green Transition, Demographic Trends, Housing, Healthcare, Digitalisation, De-globalisation, and EU Enlargement.
The report employs a scenario-based approach, analysing 2,187 possible outcomes using a Solow growth accounting framework based on labour, capital, and Total Factor Productivity (TFP).
Central Scenario Projections (No Policy Change)
Under the Central Scenario, Ireland is projected to continue growing, with Modified Gross National Income (GNI*) reaching €537 billion by 2065 (in 2020 prices). However, the rate of overall economic growth is projected to slow over time. Living standards (GNI* per-capita) are expected to decelerate throughout the 2030s and 2040s, stabilising at approximately 0.5 per cent annual growth thereafter.
The fiscal outlook anticipates significant deterioration driven by global trends and specific domestic pressures:
1. Fiscal Deficit: The annual general government deficit is projected to reach 7.9 per cent of GNI* by 2065.
2. Public Debt: National Gross Debt is forecast to rise sharply to 148 per cent of GNI*, or €117,000 per-capita, by 2065.
3. Expenditure Pressures: Ageing-related expenditure (healthcare, long-term care, and pensions) is projected to account for 46 per cent of all voted expenditure by 2065, up from 34 per cent in 2025. The increasing fiscal deficit is compounded by the projected decline of "windfall" corporate tax receipts during the 2030s.
Key Strategic Drivers
The overall distribution of scenarios is tilted to the downside, with 62 per cent of outcomes projecting a higher National Debt than the Central Scenario. The most critical long-term challenges identified that drive negative outcomes are the extreme impacts of climate change and the green transition, followed closely by the poorest outcomes in the healthcare system and low future population growth (demographics). Conversely, productivity growth (TFP), often driven by digitalisation, is identified as the ultimate source of sustainable long-run growth and fiscal improvement.
The report highlights that a critical window of opportunity exists in the coming decade to implement necessary reforms, such as enhancing long-run productivity, addressing the housing shortfall, and improving cost-efficiency in health and aged care systems, before demographic shifts constrain economic growth and fiscal flexibility diminishes in the mid-to-late 2030s.
The full document is available here.
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